Overview
Standard polymer prices edge forward, in response to feedstock cost inflation.
After improved demand in January, the thoughts of standard polymer producers turned to instigating price increases for February. In the first instance there were calls from some suppliers for ‘triple digit’ increases, especially wherever supply was perceived to be snug for materials such as LDPE.
As the month got underway, it became clear that many converters were only prepared to accept the monomer increases and where necessary lived off existing inventories in order to put pressure on the sellers to accept more modest price rises.
Whilst far from buoyant, the overall market sentiment was more positive.
It is expected that contract monomer prices will increase again for March, and with this in mind many polymer converters will look to maintain, or increase inventory levels.
Monomer Price Movement
Feedstock
Price per Tonne
Change (contract)
C2 (Ethylene)
£1,054.48
£44.02
C3 (Propylene)
£945.46
£44.02
SM (Styrene Monomer)
£1,248.60
£37.73
Benzene
£720.31
£1.68
Butadiene
£863.71
£37.73
Brent Crude (monthly average)
£476.61
£41.18
Exchange Rates
€
1.19
$
1.24
€/$
1.04
Mike Boswell
Managing Director – Plastribution Group
Oil Prices
No Data Found
Exchange Rates
No Data Found
UK Economic Data
Topic
Item
Date
Change
Trend
GDP
Real GDP (Q on Q)
Q3 2024
£639,452
PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
January
48.3%
UK Output
Manufacturing Index
Q3 2024
100.4%
Sales
New Car Registrations (Y on Y)
January 25 YTD
139,345
Sales
Retail Sales (Y on Y)
December 24
104.6%
Labour
Unemployment Rate
Sept 24 – Nov 24
4.4%
Prices
CPI (Y on Y)
December
2.5%
Prices
RPI (Y on Y)
December
3.5%
Interest Rates
Bank of England Base Rate
February
4.50%
Polyolefins
February has seen the first significant price movement in months, with relatively big increases in monomer passing through and for some grades, significant premiums above monomer have been reported. Both Ethylene C2 and Propylene C3 were late settling with much disagreement between buyers and sellers.
C2 eventually settled at +€55 / MT with C3 just behind at €52.50 / MT. Whilst increased Naphtha costs were cited as one reason, the monomer producers are also concerned about increased production costs and with some planned and unplanned shutdown of capacity in Europe, sellers had a slightly stronger hand.
LDPE has seen the biggest increases of around €100 / MT as suppliers looked to balance output with demand that was much stronger in January as buyers looked to replenish stocks. Import grades such as HDPE and LLDPE mostly saw monomer increases though some looked to recover a little of the lost margin of last year with requests for €70-80 / MT increases.
Polypropylene generally saw increases in line with monomer but there were some attempts at increases above this. Positions varied depending on whether a supplier was looking to improve market share or to improve margins that were heavily impacted towards the end of last year.
Outlook for the short term is for potential small increases in March before some stability in April. Early suggestions are for slight (€10-20 / MT) increases in monomer in March and this is likely to be passed through. We are, however, facing some uncertainty with global trade potentially facing the impact of tariffs that could be implemented at short notice. It remains to be seen how much this may impact imports and exports of PE and PP that are truly global products. Whilst they are both currently in a global oversupply situation, we may have a bumpy road in terms of supply chain if traditional export routes are disrupted.
European Petrochemicals Industry is in a very “Dynamic” period with many rumours surrounding further limits to production with temporary shutdowns and possible permanent closures of assets. We should see further announcements in the coming months.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Polyolefins
Polyolefins Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
LDPE
Supply
Demand
LDPE has seen the strongest increases with some producers looking for +€150 / MT claiming very strong demand and very low inventory levels. Whilst that level of increase might be slightly optimistic, +€100 / MT increases have been seen quite widely in the market.
There have been a few restrictions in European production, and we don’t typically see strong imports of LDPE to bolster supplies.
LLDPE
Supply
Demand
C4 LLDPE has increased by around monomer (+€55 / MT) but there is some variation either side of this depending on the preference of the supplier for either margin or market share.
We also saw increases in the price of LLDPE through January, so it depends on where you are comparing the price to, the start or the end of January.
Exporters from USA have increased prices since last year and with some strength in the US$, we are seeing this passed through and should continue to see this in March.
HDPE
Supply
Demand
HDPE is like LLDPE but with some variation between the different types. Injection grades saw stronger increases having been selling at a decent discount compared to Blow Moulding and Film grades.
HDPE is very dependent on imports and as with LLDPE, these have increased in price, and we’ve seen the stronger US$ having an effect. Expect prices to be firm into March.
PP
Supply
Demand
PP pricing has increased broadly with monomer (€52.50 / MT) in February with some slight variations either side depending on the seller’s approach and the starting point from January.
We saw quite strong restocking in January as buyers returned from long Christmas shutdowns, but it remains to be seen if this is a shift in structural demand.
March is likely to see another slight increase in Propylene monomer and this is likely to be passed through, but it will depend on the supply / demand balance.
Other Polyolefins
EVA pricing has increased in line with monomer, but we do see developments in this industry as some producers look to rationalise grade slates to become more efficient.
Polyolefin Elastomers are also increasing in line with monomer.
Styrenics
Contract EU Styrene rises again.
Styrene Monomer has increased by €45/T, settling at €1489/T.
For February, EU GPPS and HIPS increased by €45/T and ABS followed.
GPPS/HIPS/ABS supply chains are still running at reduced rates, no doubt triggered by low demand. Converters and distributors are also running inventory at very low levels due to financial pressures. Therefore, any adjustments in polymer prices are likely to be passed on immediately.
Andrew Waterfield
Product Supervisor – Styrenics
Styrenics Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PS
Supply
Demand
January SM rose €35/T, with Monomer settling at €1444/T. Supply was normal, albeit at reduced levels, but demand poor, as most converters had already stocked up due to holidays
February brings another SM increase (+€45) and Polymer prices have risen by the same. Material availability is good, with producers not feeling the need to enforce quotas. Demand is sluggish, as converters are likely working through their stocks.
ABS
Supply
Demand
January prices increased slightly (SM +€36/t, butadiene Roll, ACN +€21/t). Availability was fine, but demand low due to the same reasons as PS.
February shows another uplift in pricing. Far eastern materials are affected by Forex variations but could see a benefit from reducing freight rates. (SM +€45/t, butadiene +€45/t, ACN +€56/t). Supply is good as all EU plants are up and running, but demand remains subdued.
PC/ABS
Supply
Demand
As usual, PC/ABS price is following the trend of ABS, but supply/demand are not as extreme.
Other Styrenics
SAN and specialities such as ASA and Q Resin continue to follow the price trend of ABS.
Engineering Polymers
January saw a slight uplift in order activity, in part due to a shorter trading month in December where many moulders finished early for the Christmas break. It looks unlikely that there will be any notable changes to demand, supply, or prices in February.
The February benzene contract settled €2/Mt higher than January at €859/Mt.
Sharron Jarvis
Product Supervisor – Engineering Polymers
Engineering Polymer Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PA6
Supply
Demand
Unfortunately, no significant bounce back in activity for January, and it is expected that February will follow in the same theme. We are seeing little evidence of stock building, and most moulders are buying only what is necessary.
PA66
Supply
Demand
Similar picture to PA6, weak demand, and no real signs of recovery expected in the short to medium term.
POM
Supply
Demand
Imports are expected to increase as we come out of the Lunar new year. This will put further pressure on price in what is already an extremely competitive market.
PC
Supply
Demand
PMMA
Supply
Demand
Plant maintenances for MMA have been announced, but with weak demand it is unlikely to have any impact on price and availability.
PBT
Supply
Demand
Weak demand and rollover prices.
Other Engineering Polymers
The current situation for most other engineering materials is similar, with weak demand and rollover or downward price pressure.
Sustainable Polymers
Recycled Polyolefins have seen some strengthening in February on the back of decent increases in virgin prices. Most of the increases have been felt at the lower end of the market where struggling producers of recyclate have finally been able to pass through some much-needed increases though it is still a struggle to make some grades profitably.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Sustainability
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE has increased in February around £30-50 / MT as virgin PE saw strong increases.
Whilst demand is not strong, recyclers see an opportunity to raise prices for those that use recycled as a substitute for cost reasons.
Recycled HDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled HDPE saw increases of around £30-50 / MT as virgin PE saw stronger pricing. Some demand pick up in markets such as construction was seen.
Some reports that pricing for the high-quality natural grades used in consumer packaging were seeing a plateau as demand was no longer increasing beyond supply.
Recycled PP
Supply
Demand
Recycled PP has seen slight increases of around £30-50 / MT as virgin prices have increased. As with HDPE, the high quality natural grades for consumer packaging are also seeing a price plateau though still at a significant premium over virgin.
