Overview
Price increases rapidly gain momentum as a result of the crisis in the Middle East.
The military action taken by the United States and its allies against Iran has pushed polymer pricing into hyperdrive, as the market starts to comprehend the disruption that is now ensuing.
Whilst the C3 propylene contract in Europe for March settled at +€35 per tonne on the Friday before the conflict started, the C2 ethylene settled after the hostilities got underway and recorded a more significant +€50 per tonne increase, the reaction of polymer prices has been significantly inflated.
In the case of PE many suppliers March started with +€200 per tonne; a request which initially met with incredulity, but as the reality of shipments not being able to pass through The Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian attacks on the refining and petrochemical facilities of its neighbours dawned, so the prospect of supply shortages for plastic converters became a reality, and what at first looked expensive, soon became more reasonable as price levels have increased further and announcements of restrictions abound.
Even if the conflict is resolved quickly, the repercussions in the supply chain are likely to be felt for many months to come and even though the polymer market fundamentals remain as a situation of over-supply, for now material is hard to get hold of and demand high. The inevitable result is higher prices, and a requirement for significant due diligence to confirm availability wherever material is currently in transit.
Monomer Price Movement
Feedstock
Price per Tonne
Change (contract)
C2 (Ethylene)
£953.48
£43.54
C3 (Propylene)
£840.28
£30.48
SM (Styrene Monomer)
£1,175.52
£63.57
Benzene
£687.90
-£23.51
Butadiene
£635.65
£47.89
Brent Crude (monthly average)
£463.50
£106.10
Exchange Rates
€
1.15
$
1.36
€/$
1.18
Mike Boswell
Executive Chairman – Plastribution Group
Oil Prices
Exchange Rates
UK Economic Data
Topic
Item
Date
Change
Trend
GDP
Real GDP (Q on Q)
Q3 2025
£705,603
PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
February
51.7
UK Output
Manufacturing Index
Q4 2025
101.1%
Sales
Retail Sales (Y on Y)
January 26
106.5%
Labour
Unemployment Rate
Oct 25 – Dec 25
5.2%
Prices
CPI (Y on Y)
January
3.0%
Prices
RPI (Y on Y)
January
3.8%
Interest Rates
Bank of England Base Rate
February
3.75%
Standard Polymers
This is a very challenging and dynamic situation following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Whilst at the time of writing, the prices for PE and PP appear to be increasing in the region of €200-300 / MT, we are seeing prices moving on a daily basis and this may not be accurate for long. There are rumours of planned increases in excess of €500 / MT due to significant uncertainty around material replenishment. Many suppliers in Europe have either declared Force Majeure on supply or are on order stop.
We are dependent on the Middle East for imports of both PE and PP and whilst there are options of securing PE from USA sources, many other regions will be looking for product, and they will sell to the highest bidder. PP is less easy to replace and as Asian producers rely on Middle East Naphtha for their crackers, they will not be able to fill the gap.
C2 Ethylene rose by €50 / MT and C3 Propylene rose by €35 / MT but these are not that relevant this month considering the supply chain disruption.
Polystyrene has increased above the monomer rise of €73 / MT. Whilst the supply concerns are not as great as with PE and PP, Europe imports styrene monomer from the Middle East and availability could tighten quickly. Increases of €150-200 / MT are being reported.
Prices are expected to further strengthen in the coming months until there is more clarity on how material will get the Europe and the UK. Presently, securing sufficient material is of a greater concern than what it costs. Even if the conflict is resolved quickly, it will be many months before the supply chain returns to anything like normality.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Polyolefins
Polyolefins Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
LDPE
Supply
Demand
LDPE had already tightened a little on the back of the SABIC FM called at the end of the 2025. Whilst that is expected to be resolved very soon, LDPE is increasing in price in line with other PE grades. Whilst LDPE is more “local for local” and not as dependent on imports as other PE grades, the pricing reflects the wider market and potential higher production costs.
LLDPE
Supply
Demand
LLDPE is up significantly in March with increases of €250-300 / MT reported at the time of writing. Whilst there has been a switch to USA imports in recent years, we still rely heavily on Middle East production for LLDPE. With supplies expected to very limited in the coming months, some buyers are taking everything they can find, and prices are being adjusted accordingly. The pricing is changing on an almost daily basis and is expected to continue to rise until some equilibrium is reached.
HDPE
Supply
Demand
HDPE is a similar story to LLDPE with really strong increases reported. HD Blow Moulding is rumoured to be very short, and some traders are allegedly asking for €400 / MT increases over February pricing. In Petrochemical terms, HDPE is the biggest export of Middle East to Europe and the lack of availability and uncertainty of when it will resume is driving demand and consequently, lifting the prices considerably.
PP
Supply
Demand
PP pricing is sharply up as buyers are now more concerned with securing material than the price. PP (after HDPE) is the second biggest Petrochemical export from the Middle East to Europe. Options to replace this with alternative sources are limited and whilst Europe can ramp up production a little bit, propylene is in high demand and spot prices are now higher than contract, pushing up domestic production costs. Increases of €200-300 are widely reported. This is expected to carry on in the coming months.
PS
Supply
Demand
PS pricing has risen significantly beyond monomer and increases of €150-180 are widely reported. Whilst availability is not as directly affected as PE and PP grades, there could be limitations on Styrene monomer availability. Prices of all standard grades will be affected by the expected sharp increases in shipping costs.
Other Polyolefins
EVA pricing is up around €200-250 / MT. Pricing is broadly in line with LDPE and availability is restricted with order stops now in place. Speciality POP and POE grades are typically linked to monomer but this may change in the coming months.
Performance Polymers
The current situation is dominated by events in the Middle East. It remains to be seen just how much of a medium to long term impact it will have, but for now, the messaging is one of higher prices, longer lead-times, shipping issues and general delays.
Some producers have introduced temporary surcharges whilst others have stopped accepting orders altogether. With prices already on an upward curve, the events of recent times will only increase the momentum for higher prices, while simultaneously, inventories will start to be depleted.
The Benzene contract price in March settled at €763/t, down by €27/t from February, but this is now completely irrelevant due to events in the Middle East.
Pete Tillin
Product Manager – Performance Polymers
Performance Polymer Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
ABS
Supply
Demand
ABS prices are very volatile and increasing rapidly. The styrene monomer contract price increased by €73/t in March, ACN was also up by €37/t, and butadiene up €55/t, but these are now largely irrelevant. Demand has increased as customers try to beat the very large inevitable cost increases.
PA6
Supply
Demand
Prices are expected to rise in the short to medium term, but no significant supply issues are forecasted at the moment.
PA66
Supply
Demand
With Invista announcing large price increases in Asia for HMD and PA66 base polymer, it is only a matter of time before European prices rise.
POM
Supply
Demand
Prices are expected to rise in the short to medium term, and there are there are expected to be significant delays for shipments from the Far East causing supply chain issues and gaps in inventories
PC
Supply
Demand
Similar to the POM situation, prices are expected to rise in the short to medium term, and there are there are expected to be significant delays for shipments from the Far East causing supply chain issues and gaps in inventories.
PMMA
Supply
Demand
Similar to other materials, prices are expected to rise in the short to medium term, and there are there are expected to be significant delays for shipments from the Far East causing supply chain issues and gaps in inventories.
PBT
Supply
Demand
The market is nervous, but fairly balanced at the moment.
Other Engineering Polymers
The current situation for most other engineering materials is broadly the same, with greater demand from processors who are nervous about supply due to the Middle East conflict, and therefore higher prices
Sustainable Polymers
Recycled Polyolefins are starting to see prices recover as the impacts of the Middle East conflict are felt throughout the industry. With very significant price increases and restricted availability of prime materials, buyers look to recycled options more and we can expect to see demand for recycled grades outstrip supply.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Sustainability
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE has seen some increases in March, absolute levels are hard to pick due to range of quality and specification but with prime LDPE and LLDPE up by £200+ / MT. We can expect to see triple digit increases soon.
Recycled HDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled HDPE has risen in March, full effects of the prime increases not yet full realised but as prime HD Blow Moulding is getting very scarce, more buyers will look to this option.
Recycled PP
Supply
Demand
Recycled PP should see strong increases in the coming months as prime PP hits a big supply crunch. Middle East is a big supplier of PP to Europe and with shortages expected in the coming months, recycled PP is more likely to be substituted in.
