Overview
Crude Oil prices, a key indicator of global economic confidence, have recently fallen to a 4-year low as concerns continue about President Trump’s US import tariff policies. As can been seen in the table above, most monomer prices fell by a greater extent.
The reaction to falling feedstock costs has been slightly muted in terms of polymer prices, but the downward pressure continues
The impacts of a limited agreement between the UK and the US, along with a major de-escalation of the tariff war between the China and the US are yet to be seen, but consumer confidence has been dented and will not recover easily.
Many converters of standard polymers appear to be contemplating the opportunity to secure low value stocks, prior to a turn-around in market conditions. Polymer producers appear to be chocking output rates due to operating losses, high stock levels and poor demand. It may still take some time for market conditions to become more favourable due to abundance of product and weak economic sentiment.
Monomer Price Movement
Feedstock
Price per Tonne
Change (contract)
C2 (Ethylene)
£968.98
-£59.76
C3 (Propylene)
£866.53
-£55.49
SM (Styrene Monomer)
£1,243.03
-£34.15
Benzene
£499.43
-£71.71
Butadiene
£828.12
-£51.22
Brent Crude (monthly average)
£379.84
-£36.94
Exchange Rates
€
1.17
$
1.31
€/$
1.12
Mike Boswell
Managing Director – Plastribution Group
Oil Prices
No Data Found
Exchange Rates
No Data Found
UK Economic Data
Topic
Item
Date
Change
Trend
GDP
Real GDP (Q on Q)
Q4 2024
£642,287
PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
May
45.4%
UK Output
Manufacturing Index
Q4 2024
99.6%
Sales
New Car Registrations (Y on Y)
April 2025 YoY
-10%
Sales
Retail Sales (Y on Y)
March 25
107.2%
Labour
Unemployment Rate
Jan 25 – March 25
4.5%
Prices
CPI (Y on Y)
March
2.6%
Prices
RPI (Y on Y)
March 25 YoY
3.2%
Interest Rates
Bank of England Base Rate
May
4.25%
Polyolefins
After the uncertainty of April with the potential backdrop of a Global Trade War, we have a little bit more clarity in May as the potential for retaliatory tariffs on US imports has abated, at least for the time being.
As we’ve seen, the turmoil has impacted oil prices, this is reflected in Naphtha and has led to monomer drops in May. C2 Ethylene dropped by €70 / MT and C3 Propylene dropped by €65 / MT. For the most part, we’re seeing polymer prices follow this but there are some differences appearing depending on the approach taken in April and the availability of certain grades. On PE, some producers kept with the rollover announced at the start of April anticipating disruption to supply with the expectation of retaliatory tariffs temporarily halting shipments from the US. With supply more assured in the medium term, some producers are offering small incentives beyond monomer to encourage buying.
There are some short-term pockets of supply disruption as imports were temporarily suspended, this is mostly affecting LLDPE and HDPE, but the longer-term outlook is for strong supply into the summer.
PP is also seeing stronger levels of imports soon as the market adjusts to the disruption caused by the trade war between China and USA. There may be more disruption depending on how China manages to supply the PP plants that have relied on imports of propane from the USA.
The £ has strengthened a little against the € and this should also help a little with prices.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Polyolefins
Polyolefins Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
LDPE
Supply
Demand
LDPE has seen a vey broad range of price movements this month with some disruption to supply locally but with continued weak demand to balance this. Some that passed through the monomer reduction last month are now attempting to rollover as they are tight on supply. This is the reverse position to others who having not sold much in April due to a rollover are now offering slightly more than monomer to stimulate buying in May. As an average, the reduction appears to be in line with monomer, around £60 / MT
LLDPE
Supply
Demand
LLDPE is falling this month, roughly in line with monomer as concerns over supply disruption have gone for at least the next few months. There is a little bit of tightness on some grades as supplies were delayed but for those that can wait until later on the month, there are deals available as fresh imports arrive.
HDPE
Supply
Demand
HDPE is broadly falling in line with monomer, with reductions around £50-60 / MT widely reported. As with LLDPE, supply from the USA was temporarily stopped and this has caused a few issues with immediate availability, but this should improve through the month and be fully back to normal for June supply
PP
Supply
Demand
PP pricing has mostly dropped in line with monomer in May, we are seeing strong levels of imports that may put further pressure on pricing as demand remains weak. We are seeing some production issues in Europe, and this may cause some disruption to supply in the short term.
Trade war is impacting demand for PP in key areas such as Automotive, but it may also disrupt supply of PP from Far East depending on how China adapts to producing without USA Propane.
Other Polyolefins
EVA pricing is mostly moving with monomer down €70 but there are some issues with supply. Versalis have had a fire at one of their plants and Total are still in Force Majeure on EVA so supply is restricted, and we are unlikely to see anything beyond monomer. Polyolefin Elastomers are a rollover as they are priced quarterly.
Styrenics
Contract EU Styrene falls again.
Styrene Monomer has fallen by €40/T, settling at €1456/T.
For May, EU GPPS and HIPS reduced by €40/T and EU ABS followed (+€50/T). Non Flame retardant Import ABS Rollover. FR ABS facing increases due to FR Shortage.
GPPS/HIPS/ABS supply chains are still running at reduced rates, no doubt triggered by low demand. Converters and distributors are also running inventory at very low levels due to financial pressures. Therefore, any adjustments in polymer prices are likely to be passed on immediately.
Andrew Waterfield
Product Supervisor – Styrenics
Styrenics Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PS
Supply
Demand
April SM fell €58/T, with Monomer settling at €1496/T. GPPS and HIPS Supply was normal, albeit at reduced levels as demand remained poor.
May brings a further fall in feedstock pricing (-€40) and Polymer prices have fallen in line. Material availability is good, with producers not feeling the need to enforce quotas. Demand is sluggish, as converters are likely working through their stocks.
ABS
Supply
Demand
April prices fell (SM -€58/t, butadiene -€20/t, ACN -€92/t), but imported material remained strong due to forex pressures. Availability was fine, but demand low due to the same reasons as PS.
May shows a decrease for EU produced ABS. Composite monomer prices have fallen (SM -€40/t, butadiene -€60/t, ACN -€104/t) and far eastern materials are holding price, but improved forex rates are offing some respite. Supply is good for standard ABS but expect shortages and price increases for FR ABS, due to a global shortage of Antimony Trioxide
PC/ABS
Supply
Demand
As usual, PC/ABS price is following the trend of ABS, but supply/demand are not as extreme. FR PC/ABS is not affected by the Antimony Trioxide shortage, and is a good replacement.
Other Styrenics
SAN and specialities such as ASA and Q Resin continue to follow the price trend of ABS.
Engineering Polymers
April saw disappointing sales across most materials and market segments. There was renewed efforts to try to push increases through for the start of Q2, however with weak demand most producers had to accept rollover at best.
The April benzene contract settled €179/Mt lower than March and May sees a further decline of €84/Mt settling at €585/Mt.
Sharron Jarvis
Product Supervisor – Engineering Polymers
Engineering Polymer Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PA6
Supply
Demand
The market remains particularly competitive due to weak demand and plentiful inventories.
PA66
Supply
Demand
PA66 is following the same trend as PA6 with weak demand and an incredibly competitive marketplace.
POM
Supply
Demand
A competitive market with plentiful supply, and poor demand.
PC
Supply
Demand
The benzene contract price has reduced further by €84/Mt. Demand remains poor, so the best outcome for producers is rollover pricing
PMMA
Supply
Demand
Weak demand, rising pricing, and reduced production in Europe.
PBT
Supply
Demand
Weak demand and stable prices.
Other Engineering Polymers
The current situation for most other engineering materials is similar, with weak demand, plentiful supply, and therefore stable pricing at best.
Sustainable Polymers
Recycled Polyolefins has seen a mixture of price movements in May with some grades showing tight supply increasing in price, but most moving in a similar direction to prime grades with reductions differing depending on supply and demand balance.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Sustainability
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE
Supply
Demand
Some recycled LDPE / LLDPE increased a little in May as input costs of bales increased and with good quality material still in high demand to meet legislative and consumer requirements, recyclers felt confident in passing through increases. More industrial grades were under pressure to follow the prime price reductions seem of around £50 / MT but there was some resistance, and reductions were typically lower as input costs for recyclers remain high.
Recycled HDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled HDPE has mostly rolled over in May, high input costs continue to put recyclers under pressure and whilst prime prices are coming down, recyclers are not able to absorb costs, and many are at a breaking point with regards to profitability. Some movement depending on the quality and the supply / demand balance. Natural grades continue to command a strong premium over prime
Recycled PP
Supply
Demand
Recycled PP has seen around rollover in May, after coming under pricing pressure in April, recyclers have no more to give and with input costs staying relatively high. Demand for natural recycled PP for consumer goods is still quite strong, and prices are staying high. Industrial grades are under some pressure as demand from key sectors is still weak.
